As a manager of a small business, you are considering to introduce a new product. The production requires a new machine. You figure out that you could buy it for $190,000, but the price could be in between $180,000 and $200,000. Because of the budget limitation you can only pay 60% of the machine price with your own saving. You will borrow the other 40% with an interest rate around 9% per year (but subject to change in between 8.5% and 10%).
The demand of this product is predicted to be 15,000 per year and but could be in between 14800 and 15500. The unit price could be in between $2 and $3, and now you believe that $2.5 is a reasonable price right now. The raw material cost is estimated to be $0.9 but could be in between $0.5 and $1.2. The operation cost of the equipment is around $0.2 for one product but could be in between $0.1 and $0.25. The maintenance cost for this equipment is estimated to be $2000 per year but could be in between $1500 and $2300.
Suppose you could always invest your cash in the money market that give a return at 8% per year for sure.
Please do following analysis:
Construct the Influence Diagram for this decision problem and identify the inputs and mathematic models that relate these inputs (decision variables) to the decision problem.
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